G\u00fcrcistan\u2019da y\u0131llard\u0131r devlet politikas\u0131 say\u0131lan k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi art\u0131k y\u00fcksek sesle tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor: Abhazya ve Tshinvali olmadan Avrupa Birli\u011fi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
G\u00fcrcistan Parlamentosu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ealva Papua\u015fvili, 21 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bu tart\u0131\u015fmaya adeta yumru\u011funu masaya vurarak cevap verdi: \u201cAbhazya ve Tshinvali olmadan Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fcyeli\u011finin G\u00fcrcistan i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir de\u011feri yok.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Papua\u015fvili bununla da yetinmedi. Muhalif siyaset\u00e7i Nika Gvaramia\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6ylemlerinin, G\u00fcrc\u00fc toplumunu \u201cAbhazya ve Tshinvali olmadan AB\u201d fikrine haz\u0131rlayan, d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan y\u00f6nlendirilen bir kampanyan\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Gvaramia\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7ta bu b\u00f6lgelerin Rusya\u2019ya b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelece\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peki Tiflis\u2019te 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k yara neden yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bir \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda belirtti\u011fimiz gibi eski Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mihail Saaka\u015fvili, Abhazya\u2019n\u0131n geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn yaln\u0131zca Abhazlarla uzla\u015farak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyece\u011fini; meselenin Rusya\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc ve G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n kapasitesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir jeopolitik sorun oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ard\u0131ndan Gvaramia daha sert konu\u015ftu: \u201cAbhazlar G\u00fcrc\u00fcleri sevmiyor, biz de Abhazlar\u0131 sevmiyoruz. \u015eu anda d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131z.\u201d
As\u0131l k\u0131r\u0131lma ise Karaba\u011f \u00fczerinden ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Papua\u015fvili\u2019ye g\u00f6re ortaya konulan yeni denklem \u015fu: Ermenistan Karaba\u011f \u201ctravmas\u0131n\u0131\u201d geride b\u0131rakarak Bat\u0131\u2019yla yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131; G\u00fcrcistan da Abhazya ve Tshinvali meselesini geride b\u0131rak\u0131rsa Avrupa yolunda ilerleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ancak Karaba\u011f ile Abhazya ayn\u0131 mesele de\u011fil. Hukuki, tarihi ve askeri zeminleri farkl\u0131. Fakat Karaba\u011f\u2019\u0131n G\u00fcrcistan a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ba\u015fka bir jeopolitik mesaj\u0131 var: B\u00f6lgede hi\u00e7bir stat\u00fcko ebedi de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nitekim Karaba\u011f\u2019dan yaln\u0131zca Ermeni silahl\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Azerbaycan egemenli\u011fini tamamen tesis ettikten sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 bin Rus bar\u0131\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc askeri de 2024\u2019te b\u00f6lgeden ayr\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130\u015fte Tiflis\u2019teki yeni tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 gereken di\u011fer taraf\u0131 burada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rusya bug\u00fcn Abhazya ve G\u00fcney Osetya\u2019daki askeri, siyasi ve ekonomik n\u00fcfuzunu koruyor, hatta tahkim ediyor. 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Tshinvali\u2019de yap\u0131lan ve Tiflis ile AB\u2019nin tan\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zde se\u00e7imde Rusya federal kurumlar\u0131nda g\u00f6rev yapm\u0131\u015f Marat<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kambolov\u2019un y\u00fczde 85 civar\u0131nda oyla kazanan ilan edilmesi bunun son g\u00f6stergelerinden biri.
Ama bug\u00fcn\u00fcn Rusya\u2019s\u0131 2008\u2019in Rusya\u2019s\u0131 da de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moskova d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir Ukrayna\u2019da son derece maliyetli bir sava\u015f y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor. Bu sava\u015f Rusya\u2019n\u0131n askeri ve ekonomik kaynaklar\u0131 \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Tiflis\u2019te baz\u0131 \u00e7evrelerin hesab\u0131 yaln\u0131zca bug\u00fcnk\u00fc Rus g\u00fcc\u00fcne de\u011fil, yar\u0131n bu g\u00fcc\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ihtimaline de dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Saaka\u015fvili\u2019nin \u201cRusya zay\u0131flamadan Abhazya meselesi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmez\u201d \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u015fifresi de burada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015ftan nas\u0131l \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 sadece Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fil, eski Sovyet co\u011frafyas\u0131ndaki b\u00fct\u00fcn donmu\u015f \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n gelece\u011fini etkileyebilir. Moskova\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc ve b\u00f6lgesel kapasitesi azal\u0131rsa Abhazya ve G\u00fcney Osetya\u2019daki mevcut stat\u00fckonun da sorgulanmas\u0131 ihtimal dahilinde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu nedenle G\u00fcrcistan\u2019daki tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yaln\u0131zca \u201cAvrupa m\u0131, toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc m\u00fc?\u201d ikilemine s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak eksik olur.
As\u0131l soru belki de \u015fudur:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rusya zay\u0131flarsa, G\u00fcrcistan 30 y\u0131ld\u0131r de\u011fi\u015ftiremedi\u011fi haritay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kabilecek yeni jeopolitik f\u0131rsata haz\u0131r m\u0131?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tiflis gelece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015f\u0131rken Moskova bug\u00fcn sahadaki stat\u00fckoyu tahkim ediyor. Ancak tarih bize \u015funu da g\u00f6steriyor: G\u00fc\u00e7 dengeleri de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde, de\u011fi\u015fmez denilen stat\u00fckolar da de\u011fi\u015febiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abhazya dosyas\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n as\u0131l \u015fifresi belki de burada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n